{"id":856,"date":"2009-06-01T12:43:14","date_gmt":"2009-06-01T01:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/?p=856"},"modified":"2009-06-01T12:43:14","modified_gmt":"2009-06-01T01:43:14","slug":"google-wave-will-take-a-generation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/2009\/06\/google-wave-will-take-a-generation\/","title":{"rendered":"Google Wave will take a generation"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"google<\/a>Chris Saad<\/a> used to ask me questions about tech in enterprise due to my history (I’ve got the battle scars rolling out web2.0 at PwC), but he asked me after<\/em> he wrote this post<\/a>. So instead of telling him he’s wrong by email (ironic given the topic), I’m going to shame him to the world!<\/p>\n

Why Google Wave will take over ten years to turn into a trending wave<\/strong>
\nAs I previously wrote when the news of Google’s new technology was announced<\/a>, there is a hidden detail Google hasn’t announced to the world: it requires massive computational power to pull off. It doesn’t take a brain to realise it either – anyone thats used a bloated Instant Messenger (like Lotus Same Time) probably understands this. All that rich media, group chat, real time – Jesus, how many fans are we going to need now to blow the steam generated by our computer processors? Mozilla pioneered tabbed browsing – and it’s still trying to pioneer on the same idea – from your computer crashing when you have more than a few tabs open!<\/p>\n

Don’t get me wrong, Google Wave is phenomenal. But it’s only the beginning. The fact Google has opened this up to the world is a good thing. But we need to be realistic, because even if this technology is distributed (like how email is), the question I want to know is how many users can one server support? I’d be surprised at these early stages if it’s more than a dozen (the demo itself showed there’s still a lot of work to be done)<\/a>. Do I have inside knowledge? No – just common sense and experience with every other technology I’ve used to date.<\/p>\n

Why Google Wave won’t hit the enterprise in the next 12 months<\/strong>
\nNow to the point where Saad is *really* wrong. “20% of enterprise users will be using wave in the first 12 months for more than 50% of their comms (replacing email and wiki)<\/a>“. <\/p>\n

\"chris<\/a><\/p>\n

Yeah right. It’s going to take at least three years, with a stable and mature technology, for this to work. Email sucks, but it also works. IT departments, especially in this economy, are not going to try a new form of communication that’s half working and is not a mass adopted technology (wiki’s are a new thing – there’s a cultural battle still being fought within enterprises).<\/p>\n

The real time nature potentially might even scare communications departments. Entire divisions exist in firms like mine, to control the message sent to employees. If you are revealing a message before the final message has been crafted, you’ve given away control to that message – the process now becomes just as important as the final message. I understand this functionality can be turned off, but I’m raising it to highlight how enterprises think.<\/p>\n

Google Wave rocks<\/strong>
\nAgain, don’t get me wrong. Google Wave blows my mind. But let’s be realistic here – big ideas take time. It took a while for Google the search engine to domiante<\/a>. Heck, Gmail has taken nearly a decade<\/a> to get to the point of being called dominant. And you can fix bugs, deploy software, and roll out sales teams – but sometimes with big ideas, it’s a generational thing. <\/p>\n

Wave will dominate our world communications – one day. But not for a while.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Technical reasons aside, the technology needs time to mature<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,29],"tags":[106,139,426,169,172,359],"class_list":["post-856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-internet","category-trends-internet","tag-chris-saad","tag-email","tag-enterprise","tag-google","tag-google-wave","tag-technology","post-preview"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eliasbizannes.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}